70 Percent Rule

 In any problem with uncertainty, it is important to challenge what you think you already know by seeking out contradictory beliefs and evidence. It may be easy to set up straw man alternatives and easily dismiss them in order to pursue the original path. Paul Nutt, decision making expert at Ohio State University, found that 50% of decisions made in business are not successful, meaning they cannot be solved (Harvard Management Update). The decision makers often feel that a decision must be made now and that any delay will lead to failure, or at least not appearing to be confident and competent. In limiting the scope of alternatives, they force the group to choose from flawed choices, yet may be unaware of the depth of the flaws. A worse reason may be that so much money or time has been put into an idea or project, that not pursuing it would seem like a waste.

Additionally, assessing certainty in decision making is effective in recognizing what might be unknown such as determining success of a project, idea, etc. (Johnson 65). Because many tasks we do or problems we solve have multiple variables and do not have a clear path to success, taking time to establish what is known and what is unknown is vital. While there may be no way to actually determine certainty, using Jeff Bezos "70 percent rule" instead of waiting to make sure 100% of the information is in becomes a more realistic metric (Johnson 65). Acknowledging the fact that we won't know everything about a complex decision and that we will have to negotiate bumps in the road is far better than being paralyzed by having to make a decision.

Harvard Management Update. “Increase the Odds of Being Right.” Harvard Business Review, 7 Aug. 2014, hbr.org/2008/02/increase-the-odds-of-being-rig-1.

Johnson, Steven. Farsighted; How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most. Riverhead Books, 2018.