The ability to create a "story," to project what will happen in the future rather than merely reacting to what is currently happening, or acting purely on instinct is what makes us human (Johnson 81). That is how stock brokers, professional sports general managers, and even people filling out NCAA basketball brackets and other prognosticators make their living. They take information at hand and make educated guesses about what will happen, often for financial gain. After studying 28,000 predictions by people in the media regarding economic and geopolitical events, political science professor Phillip Tetlock, concluded that often those people, when their predictions are examined after the event, are entirely wrong (Johnson 83). These events projected by “experts” are actually no better than a guess. It is almost like a lottery, most people don't win, but when they do, someone makes sure everyone knows it.
Tetlock did not leave it at that. He examined what separated (more) successful prognosticators from the others and he found that being able to identify unknowns (what Jimmy the Greek from the 1970’s NFL Today termed “intangibles”) and feel like they may be important led to more success. Having the flexibility to take in as much information as possible, while keeping crazy ideas in play was the most vital aspect of prediction.
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